Monthly Futures Studies Letters; Issue 80 November 2021

عکس مقاله سند امنیت ملّی
Institute Horizon Institute for Strategic Futurology۱۰۰%
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Institute۱۰۰%
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National Security Document

The  national security strategies of each country are determined periodically and based on the requirements of the time and the political, economic, cultural, social and technological conditions of its internal and external environment. Typically, these strategies are formulated in the form of the national security document of that country. The editorial of this issue of the monthly magazine examines examples of the process of compiling and designing this document and the approaches considered in this field. Defining national security and determining the approach of the country’s governing system to this issue will be the first step in compiling such documents.

عکس مقاله انتخابات پارلمانی عراق: تحلیل نتایج و پیامدها
Faculty member in the Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies۱۰۰%
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Ali Akbar Asadi۱۰۰%
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Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: An Analysis of Results and Consequences

The  results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections, the most important political event in the country this year, have severely affected the composition of the parliamentary parties, despite widespread protests by various parties. Changing the power structure and bringing new political currents to power were among the demands that led to a change in the electoral law in Iraq. This memorandum examines the impact of the election results on the internal and external situation in Iraq.

عکس مقاله دولت سیزدهم و چال شهای آینده مدیریت شناختی کشور
Master of Regional Studies۱۰۰%
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Alireza Khoramrooz۱۰۰%
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The Thirteenth Government and the Future Challenges of the Cognitive Management
of the Country

Public opinion management is related to the field of media in terms of structuring and superstructure, and in this regard, public and media communication methods are considered as tactics for shifting mental propositions. But the basis of this goes back to the field of cognitive management, and in fact it is one of the most secure categories that can be considered in the discussion of national security. Therefore, understanding the cognitive field of society and also ensuring its security is one of the most important approaches that is important in terms of psychological and cognitive management of the country. Examining the future challenges of the country on this basis is one of the most important functions that security agencies must address and plan and policy for it. This article, considering the importance of the category of cognitive management in the country, briefly examines the challenging areas in the field of community psychological management and tries to create a deep understanding in the field of future injuries. The process of examining the challenges is based on the current situation of the country and the areas of future occurrence are along the trends that can occur in the form of a range of variables.

عکس مقاله » پیشرفت علمی کشور
Fourth Level Graduate of Islamic Seminary of Qom۱۰۰%
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Mohsen Khaki۱۰۰%
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Future scenarios of “scientific progress of the country”
In the strategic statements of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution

The geographical, political and economic conditions of the country are such that the only way to produce dignity and continuous growth is in “creative and problem-oriented scientific progress”. This progress must be in line with the semantic horizons of the Islamic system and in order to solve the needs of the country. In the strategic view of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, drivers such as the perceptual status of the country’s elites, the production of science and creativity in knowledge, the central issue in scientific development, scientific leap (acceleration) and crossing the borders of knowledge, enemy influence among elites and scientific communities are among the most important. The determinants are in this direction. It seems that there are four scenarios in front of the scientific progress of the country, which can be deduced from the intersection of the perceptual status of scientific elites and the tendency of science production to the problems of the country and its absence. Finally, the current and future scientific situation of the country is such that the existence of a governing and extra-organizational system similar to the structure of the Supreme National Security Council under the title of “Supreme Council for the Advancement of Science” can guarantee continuity, leap and change of scientific balance in the world in Iran’s favor.

عکس مقاله بحران افغانستان: بررسی رویکردهای منطقه ای
Foreign Policy Think Tank۱۰۰%
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Think Tanks۱۰۰%
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Afghanistan Crisis: A Survey of Regional Approaches

The  Taliban’s domination of Afghanistan has changed the interior of the country, as well as the political-security environment in the eastern part of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Central Asia. One of the most important issues regarding this development is the attitude of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, regional powers and finally supra-regional powers towards the change of government in Kabul. This article examines this issue in the light of the interests, opportunities and concerns of each of these countries in light of the new situation in Afghanistan.

عکس مقاله روابط فرهنگی- اجتماعی ایران و عراق: ابعاد و چشم اندازها
Foreign Policy Think Tank ۱۰۰%
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Think Tanks۱۰۰%
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Socio-cultural relations between Iran and Iraq:
Dimensions and perspectives

The religious, cultural and civilizational closeness of Iran and Iraq, especially in the post-Saddam era, has changed the relations between the two Islamic countries. Therefore, the formation of strategic relations with Iraq as one of the key goals of Iran in post-Saddam Iraq requires that Iran be able to develop and strengthen its relations with this country in the cultural, social and economic fields. Considering this important issue, in this article, after explaining the dimensions of Iran-Iraq socio-cultural relations and Iran’s strategies and policies in this regard, we will also discuss the perspectives of these relations.

عمق عربستان سعودی و لبنان
Foreign Policy Think Tank۱۰۰%
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Think Tanks۱۰۰%
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Saudi Arabia and Lebanon: New Tensions and Prospects for Relations

Saudi Arabia has traditionally been one of the most influential countries in Lebanon and has tried to play a leading role in this area by relying on various components such as Arab ethnicity and identity, Sunni religion and economic capacities. The level of relations and its type of operation in this country has been accompanied by significant changes due to regional changes on the one hand and the internal situation in Lebanon. This transformation is influenced by many internal and external factors, one of the most important of which is the strengthening of Hezbollah’s position in the Lebanese political structure. Given this important point, this article will
try to point out the new situation in Lebanon in terms of internal power balance and economic challenges, explain the new motives and tensions of Saudi Arabia and related reactions, and finally the possible perspective of Riyadh-Beirut relations is Examined.

عکس مقاله آینده امنیت روانی و ساختار جذب اخبار منفی 2( ابعاد جذب کننده اخبار منفی
Horizon Institute for Strategic Futurology۱۰۰%
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Institute۱۰۰%
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The future of psychological security and the structure of negative news absorption
(۲) Dimensions of negative news absorber

Discussing the analytical structure of the audience’s mind while receiving news and events is a context to get closer to the content and to deal with the structure of the news presented. In the first part of this series of articles, which was published in the previous issue, the situation of how the mental structure was formed was considered and it reached the stage of news entry. The entry of news into the mind of the audience alone is of great importance, which will be addressed separately, but most of the focus of this article is on the dimensions and features that will be responsible for attracting negative news. These features and dimensions meticulously control the process of entering the news and form the mental background of public opinion on a subject. In fact, the main challenge in this area is the question, what features do the structure of negatively attractive news follow and on what components do they appear in the audience’s mental system? This category can affect the mental legitimacy of the system. Have a direct impact on public opinion and make the future of the country’s psychological security face serious problems in the field of cognition.

عکس مقاله پروقایل سه گانه استراتژیک
PhD Student in International Relations۱۰۰%
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Mohammad Reza Mohammadi۱۰۰%
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Triple Strategy Profile, a New Approach to Futures Choices

Game theory is the study of mathematical models involved in the decision making method and the intelligent and logical selection of decision makers in a game. Therefore, it can be used as a framework for modeling how actors act and their reactions to other actors. From this perspective, game theory will be a good platform for future study of the possibilities and choices of decision makers based on their desirability. This article will examine this approach, based on the requirements of future research knowledge.

عکس مقاله پی شبینی هنجاری؛ بایسته ها و کاربر دها
PhD Student of Industrial Engineering at Sharif University of Technology۱۰۰%
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Hossein Shah Mohammadi Azar۱۰۰%
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Normative forecasting; Requirements and applications

Normative forecasting is one of the pervasive approaches in the field of futures research that has a special role in the field of policy and strategy. This memo seeks to introduce this approach and examine the requirements and benefits of using this approach to achieve the goals of any organization with long-term missions.

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