Monthly Futures Studies Letters; Issue 78 July 2021

عکس مقاله سیاست گزاری در افغانستان
Faculty Member at University of Tehran۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Alireza Khosravi۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

Afghanistan and the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The worst situation that threatens the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the event of a civil war and its erosion in Afghanistan is the inevitable involvement of Iran in the Eastern Neighborhood and, consequently, the reduction of influence and authority of the resistance in West Asia. Paying attention to this strategic trap – albeit with a low probability – and understanding the actions of several stakeholders, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel in specific circumstances, is the most delicate and complex issue to consider in our Afghanistan decision today. The complexity of the decision is how to deal with seemingly contradictory dualities such as: realism versus idealism in our approach to Afghanistan; The priority of the IAEA’s internal security over maintaining our influence in Afghanistan; readiness to face an erosive war in Afghanistan in the face of efforts to stabilize Afghanistan rapidly, even by overcoming coexistence with the Taliban; aligning with the will of major governments Such as China and Russia in Afghanistan against independent activism; And India-Chabahar double against China and Pakistan Gwadar; Adopt a policy that, in addition to reducing all perceived and specific threats to the country’s national security environment; not to fall into the strategic trap mentioned. The prerequisite for this smart policy-making is a correct analysis and a comprehensive summary of the total number of actors found and hidden in Afghanistan, and the avoidance of emotional decisions and hesitations in decision-making.

عکس مقاله بنیا نهای ذهنی اعتصابات صِنفی و آینده پیشُِ رو
Master of Regional Studies۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Alireza Khoramrooz۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

The mental foundations of the union strikes and the future ahead

The issue of labor and employee strikes in some sectors is one of the challenges that can provide widespread grounds for insecurity if it becomes pervasive and tied to political issues. Among the various methods of protest, this category, as the most crippling stage, can face many challenges in the political and security system of the country. Examining the mental foundations that lead to this movement is one of the issues that can radically solve the problem of union strikes. In addition to this category, looking to the future in terms of dealing with or tolerating such protests is also one of the most important approaches that should be considered. As previously discussed in separate articles on metaphysical rebellion, it is now addressed as a rebellious or metaphysical rebellious human being, and the psychological context of the strike in Iran is now being analyzed.

عکس مقاله نگاهی آینده نگر به تحلیل آراء باطله انتخابات ریاست جمهوری
Institute Horizon Institute for Strategic Futurology۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Institute۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

 Analysis of invalid ballots for the 1400 presidential election  

Void ballots have a more special place in the ballot box category than sanctions. The line between reformist and revisionist activism can be debated in the gap between the invalid vote and the sanctions. The grounds for the presence of invalid ballots go back to the possibility of active political activism within the system. Void ballots act like a double-edged sword. As they can be known as believers within the system, if they do not reach their goal, they will take action as the leader of the protests. The number of invalid ballots and their percentage of those who win can make the risk of instability clearer. Because this group of people is known as a balancer of the political conditions of society. The focus and recognition of this group as the third political current within the system, can encourage the sanctions to leave the state of radical protest and overthrow the critic within the system. Creating a psychological atmosphere, the possibility of activism of this current can create grounds for reducing the invalid vote and even the sanctions in the next elections. Bourdieu’s theory of action as a reliable analytical structure can be based on concepts such as; The field of power, the active will, the reproduction of the field of power and the new classes help to analyze and examine the void opinions.

عکس مقاله بازگشت به برجام و چش مانداز سیاست بی نالمللی دولت آینده ایران
Faculty member in the Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Ali Akbar Asadi۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

 Return to JCPOA and the perspective of international policy of
the future government of Iran

JCPOA talks have been one of the key issues in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the last six months. With the departure of JCPOA, Donald Trump created many uncertainties in Iran’s foreign and regional policy and increased confrontation between Tehran and Washington over the past few years. But the Biden administration’s insistence on returning to the UN Security Council and welcoming the international community and Iran to such a decision raised hopes of reducing confrontation between the United States and Iran and drawing a different perspective on relations between the two sides. A few months after the JCPOA talks between Iran and the world powers and the publication of optimistic news and reports about the agreement of the parties to revive JCPOA, the future of Iran’s international policy in the context of returning to JCPOA is a key issue. Especially since the return to JCPOA is accompanied by the holding of presidential elections in Iran and the formation of a new government that can offer different and new perspectives on the country’s international policies. In such circumstances, once again, ambiguities and doubts about Iran’s international policy, and in particular the type of Tehran’s interactions and relations with the great powers, have increased, and the relevant uncertainties have made it necessary to present a new perspective and outline possible perspectives. Accordingly, in this article, by assuming the positive results of JCPOA negotiations, while pointing to the dimensions and attitudes of JCPOA and the relationship between electoral developments and JCPOA, we will try to provide perspectives for Iran’s international policy in terms of returning to JCPOA and forming a new government. To be drawn.

عکس مقاله مذاکرات برجامی وین: رویکردها و عدم قطعیت ها
Foreign Policy Think Tank۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Think Tanks۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

Vienna JCPOA Negotiations: Approaches and Uncertainties

Negotiations between Iran and the great powers in Vienna to revive JCPOA are the most important foreign policy issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the present stage. The talks, which began after Biden came to power and welcomed his return to the UN Security Council, with international mediation and support, have been held over several periods and continue. Despite the numerous reports and reports on the progress of the negotiations and the seriousness of the parties in reviving JCPOA, some other statements and analyzes can be pointed out that indicate the important uncertainties and complexities that the key players in the negotiations face. The nuclear talks between Iran and the great powers can be considered one of the most important and complex diplomatic and negotiation events in international relations over the years and even in some decades. Because in these negotiations, on the one hand, all the great world powers and Iran as a regional power are present in an asymmetric form, and on the other hand, a wide range of other middle and regional actors are trying to have their own influence on these negotiations. At the domestic level, especially in the United States and Iran, there are political currents with different views and interests, which with their special positions in the pyramid of power in different periods of time increase the ambiguities and complexities of negotiations. Another important issue is that the extension of the negotiation process and then the implementation or withdrawal from JCPOA has led to the formation of new experiences and ideas by key players in the negotiations, which has made it even more difficult to reach a new agreement to seriously revive and fully implement JCPOA. Given such circumstances, in this article we seek to explain the approach of the United States and Iran as two key players in the Vienna negotiations and point to the key uncertainties of the negotiations that have further complicated and ambiguous the terms of the nuclear agreement.

عکس مقاله سناریوهای آینده قوه قضائیه
Graduate of four seminaries in Qom۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Mohsen Khaki۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

 Future scenarios of the judiciary in the second step of the Islamic Revolution in
terms of social justice

In the following article, he points out that the issue of the judiciary should be the second step in how justice is achieved and injustice is eliminated, not how injustice is fought; He considers the main issue of the judiciary in the second step of the revolution, which is accompanied by the appointment of a new head of the judiciary, to be “producing justice” and not merely fighting oppression, injustice and discrimination, while the judiciary of liberal regimes is a social justice. Either they do not distribute and, with a Darwinist or Adam Smith look, leave the distribution of social goods in the hands of the powerful or the free market. The judiciary at the level of the Islamic Republic strongly opposes domination and monopoly. It moves towards the ideal of “filling society with justice.” Therefore, based on the two key uncertainties of domination and monopoly; Outlines four scenarios for the future of the judiciary in terms of social justice, which are: social justice, fighting the mafia, fighting the oligarchy, social oppression

عکس مقاله تصویرسازی ضد امنیتی
Horizon Institute for Strategic Futurology۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Institute۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

 Anti-security imagery and visual subconscious of society in new turmoil

The course of the riots and riots ahead reminds us that the classical process of assessing insecurity is not the answer to analyzing and adapting such events, and that new structures of security studies should be used for these categories. One of the most important aspects of unrest is the mentality of the society towards the capabilities of the government in the field of security. In fact, the concept of a society’s mental image of security in society, as well as their visual subconscious perception of the hidden causes of insecurity, can directly affect the severity or extent of riots. Imagery, on the other hand, can be portrayed by hostile forces to society and, in fact, make something that was previously considered invisible. This component is the structure of modern chaos that has been analyzed using the structure of thought and theory of the leftist philosopher Walter Benjamin. In the following article, we will discuss the mental image of society of the situation of lack of security and their visual unconscious stimulation to create riots and riots.

عکس مقاله چش مانداز روابط ایران و ترکیه
Institute Horizon Institute for Strategic Futurology۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Institute۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

Prospects for Iran-Turkey relations in the field of regional energy security
until 2030

Iran-Turkey relations have always gone through many ups and downs throughout history, and these relations have not been, are not and will not be specific to recent decades. Iran and Turkey are two powerful players in the peripheral region, each of which pursues specific goals to be considered as a regional power and hegemon of the region. Regional rivalry between the two countries has led to its expansion into the field of energy security. Therefore, in this article, we seek to answer the question of what will be the perspective of Iran-Turkey relations in the field of energy security by 2030? The findings indicate that the perspective of Iran-Turkey relations in regional energy security until 2030 will be based on competition while maintaining red lines between the two sides.

عکس مقاله هشدار شناسی
Horizon Institute for Strategic Futurology۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Institute۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

Warning: Predicting post-election violence trends

According to The Conversation, electoral violence has increased over the past two years, most notably in Belarus and Zimbabwe. This violence was accompanied by the occurrence of five symptoms, which include; The history of electoral violence has been accompanied by the possibility of a short-lived threat, environmental challenges, widespread political violence, and a weak GDP (economic poverty). Given the current situation in the country and some of the challenges of the 1400 presidential election; Electoral violence is likely to occur due to some of these five symptoms. The history of electoral violence in Iran dates back to 2009 and was completed with 2016 and 2018 street riots; It can lead to new disturbances. It should also be noted that the riots of 2009 have evoked a special romantic and emotional state among the protesters. Although the threat of a coup in its literal sense has no place in the Iranian electoral literature, the induction of a political coup to vote in public opinion or to accompany part of the government to protest the political situation in the country can replace this component. Environmental challenges in the current situation tend to corona, but due to a decrease in public sensitivity to it; Now, in an emergency, heat and temporary water and electricity outages can increase stress and violence. In the economic sphere, rather than the nature of the existence of poverty, a negative psychological perception of the country’s economic situation leads to the production of violence. Violence resulting from a negative perception of the economic situation has more depth and scope than other cases and its stability is more than others. Inclusive political violence, although less common in physical conflicts, is now at its peak, and cyberspace content analysis reveals latent anger that can manifest itself under various pretexts, including elections.

عکس مقاله دیده بانی آینده
PhD Student of Industrial Engineering at Sharif University of Technology۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%
Hossein Shah Mohammadi Azar۱۰۰%
۱۰۰%

Horizon Scanning

Horizon Scanning, as one of the futures research methods that focuses on identifying future risks and opportunities, is one of the most powerful techniques available to analyze trends and scan the factors affecting an issue. This note introduces this methodological framework.

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